A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
